db-cross-border-payments-in-2040
The paper, authored by Deutsche Bank’s Corporate Bank team and published in September 2026, explores how cross‑border payments may evolve by 2040. It frames the future as a multi‑rail ecosystem where value will be created not by owning a single payment network but by connecting, orchestrating and governing a diverse set of rails, currencies and digital‑money forms. Five hypotheses are examined: 1. The dollar paradox – central banks are diversifying reserve holdings (mainly into gold) while the US dollar remains the dominant payments currency, with the euro and renminbi gaining modest international roles. 2. Fragmentation of payment networks – geopolitical tensions, sanctions and regulatory divergence are driving the creation of alternative infrastructures (e.g., Russia’s SPFS, China’s CIPS, regional real‑time systems) and a shift away from the convergence assumption. 3. Leveraging legacy rails – existing correspondent‑banking and Swift infrastructure will be extended through One‑Leg‑Out (OLO) schemes and a new Swift payments scheme that standardises speed, transparency and traceability, reducing last‑mile friction. 4. Tokenised money – stablecoins and tokenised deposits will coexist, complementing each other. Multi‑bank tokenised‑settlement platforms (Partior, Swift Ledger, Project Agora) and central‑bank‑money tokenisation (Euro‑system Pontes/Appia) are emerging, but banks will still provide trust, liquidity and compliance. 5. AI‑driven orchestration – machine‑learning and agentic AI will shift value from execution to intelligent routing, liquidity optimisation and governance. AI agents will make real‑time decisions on the optimal rail, settlement asset and risk controls, requiring robust trust and control frameworks. The paper concludes that by 2040 the payments landscape will be highly fragmented yet interconnected, and that banks must invest in multi‑rail connectivity, AI‑enabled orchestration, and consistent risk‑management to remain competitive. Strategic recommendations for financial institutions include doubling down on US‑dollar capabilities, expanding euro leadership, building seamless multi‑rail access, shaping tokenised‑money ecosystems, embedding AI across the value chain, and leveraging partnerships to manage cost and scale. Key data points (currency‑share tables, gold‑reserve trends, CIPS transaction volumes, Swift speed statistics) and numerous named initiatives and regulatory references are provided to support the hypotheses.
Topics
Dollar paradox – reserve diversification vs. dollar‑led payments
Analysis of how central banks are shifting reserve holdings toward gold while international payments continue to be dominated by the US dollar, with modest growth for the euro and renminbi.
Payment‑network fragmentation driven by geopolitics and regulation
Examination of alternative infrastructures (SPFS, CIPS, regional real‑time systems) and how sanctions, sovereign risk and divergent regulatory regimes create multiple, loosely‑connected payment ecosystems.