building intuition for strategic decision making
The document is a JPMorgan Chase thought‑leadership briefing that launches the “Climate Intuition” series, authored by Dr. Sarah Kapnick, Global Head of Climate Advisory. It opens with a foreword introducing Dr. Kapnick’s scientific and financial background and the bank’s role in pricing climate‑related financial risk. The executive summary frames climate intuition as the ability to anticipate how climate‑driven physical, biological and chemical changes will affect economies, markets and policy, and argues that integrating climate considerations into daily decision‑making is essential for capital providers, seekers and policymakers. The brief then presents a suite of macro‑level metrics – global population by continent, oil production, agricultural output, GDP, and atmospheric CO₂ – to illustrate the drivers of emissions. It explains how recent temperature records and IPCC‑derived scenarios (SSPs) show the world is on pathways to exceed 2 °C, with 2024 already crossing the 1.5 °C threshold in several datasets. The paper discusses the non‑linear acceleration of extreme events, the socioeconomic impacts of climate‑related disruptions, and the importance of defining “1.5 °C” (calendar‑year, probability, multi‑decade average, overshoot). Emissions pathways are laid out (SSP1‑1.9 to SSP5‑8.5) with associated temperature ranges, highlighting the need for rapid emissions reductions and scaling of carbon‑dioxide removal to stay below 1.5 °C. Takeaways stress that static, experience‑based thinking will miss emerging risks, and that a climate‑adjusted macro‑economic lens is required. The brief concludes with a roadmap for the series – future deep‑dives into insurance markets, adaptive actions, and national‑security implications – and includes a standard JPMorgan disclaimer. The overall purpose is to equip clients and internal stakeholders with a strategic, data‑driven intuition for navigating the new climate era.
Topics
Foreword: Bridging Climate Science and Financial Risk
Introduces Dr. Sarah Kapnick’s career trajectory from NOAA chief scientist to JPMorgan’s Global Head of Climate Advisory, emphasizing her ability to translate scientific insight into commercial risk assessment.
Macro Drivers: Population, Energy, Agriculture, GDP and CO₂ Metrics
Presents global tables of population by continent, oil production, wheat and corn output, GDP, and atmospheric CO₂, establishing the quantitative foundations of emissions trends.
Non‑Linear Rise of Extreme Events: Heatwaves, Floods, Infrastructure Failures
Explains how distribution shifts cause extreme events (heatwaves, floods) to increase faster than mean temperature, using schematic curves to illustrate probability amplification.
Defining the 1.5 °C Threshold: Multiple Metrics and Uncertainty
Lists four common definitions (calendar‑year average, probability exceedance, multi‑decade average, overshoot‑and‑return) and discusses their policy relevance and timing uncertainties.
Emissions Pathways (SSP Scenarios) and Temperature Outcomes
Displays observed emissions versus SSP1‑1.9 through SSP5‑8.5 scenarios, linking each pathway to projected temperature ranges and emphasizing the need for rapid decarbonisation or carbon‑removal.