Jake XiaJake XiaChief Risk Officer, Harvard Management Company · Risk Management and Complex Trading

a model of synchronization for self-organized crowding behavior - jake xia

PDF · 8 Oct 2025

Paper by Jake J. Xia proposing a general feedback model for self-organized crowd synchronization. Agents' actions S, observations O, and external forces E are linked via coefficients A,B,C; agents can be in normal or reactive states (reactive increases coupling), and synchronization is measured by an order parameter R(t). The model yields a critical tipping point when AB approaches 1, explains bubbles, momentum, and volatility patterns, and emphasizes monitoring fraction of reactive agents (NH/N) for system fragility. Applications span financial markets, animal herds, bridges, and social media.

Questions this document answers

R(t) = | sum_{i=1}^N d s_i(t) | / sum_{i=1}^N | d s_i(t) |

S (agents' actions), O (macro observation), and E (external force).

When the feedback product AB = 1 (AB approaches 1).

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